Why Predictions Are Bad
April 4th 2007 05:01
As part of strategic planning group in our company, my main concern is always the sustainability of the future! We spend sleepless nights trying to figure out how the market will behave in the next 5 to 10 years (a crazy thing to do if you ask me!). We even forecast the market size and business potential along the way. In short, we struggle to predict the FUTURE.
But even experts make wrong predictions from time to time. Sadly, we all predict the future based on our history and trending. While this may hold water, it limits our imagination in so many ways. We also tend to miscalculate the power of technology to alter perspectives and paradigm shifts.
Check out the most outrageous predictions I've read over the net:
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
"There is no likehood man can ever tap the power of the atom." -- Robert Millikan, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1923
"640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Bill Gates, 1981
"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -- Western Union internal memo, 1876.
"Man will never reach the moon regardless of all future scientific advances." -- Dr. Lee DeForest, Inventor of TV
"So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we'll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, we'll come work for you.' And they said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You haven't got through college yet.'" -- Apple Computer Inc. founder Steve Jobs on attempts to get Atari and H-P interested in his and Steve Wozniak's personal computer.
So be careful each time you make a prediction. Maybe 5 to 10 years from now you will also be here in this post =)
If you know any predictions on the future of blogging, please let me know.
If you enjoy these jokes, visit my source, AhaJokes.com
But even experts make wrong predictions from time to time. Sadly, we all predict the future based on our history and trending. While this may hold water, it limits our imagination in so many ways. We also tend to miscalculate the power of technology to alter perspectives and paradigm shifts.
Check out the most outrageous predictions I've read over the net:
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
"There is no likehood man can ever tap the power of the atom." -- Robert Millikan, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1923
"640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Bill Gates, 1981
"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -- Western Union internal memo, 1876.
"Man will never reach the moon regardless of all future scientific advances." -- Dr. Lee DeForest, Inventor of TV
"So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we'll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, we'll come work for you.' And they said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You haven't got through college yet.'" -- Apple Computer Inc. founder Steve Jobs on attempts to get Atari and H-P interested in his and Steve Wozniak's personal computer.
So be careful each time you make a prediction. Maybe 5 to 10 years from now you will also be here in this post =)
If you know any predictions on the future of blogging, please let me know.
If you enjoy these jokes, visit my source, AhaJokes.com
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Comment by AmyHuang
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Part of my job is to evaluate new technology within our company, and from time to time I just think the whole exercise is pointless. As soon as I finish evaluating one, something new gets released and I'll have to start all over again. By the time we have picked the device to use, it's out of date already and employees are asking for more.